US President Donald Trump on April 9 announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping tariffs on all countries except China. In an email interview with Devanshu Singla, Pranav Haridasan, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO), Axis Securities, said Trump’s announcement provides temporary relief but does not end the uncertainty. Edited excerpts:
How do you view the 90-day moratorium on US tariffs and its impact on Indian markets?
The 90-day moratorium on new US retaliatory tariffs provides temporary relief but does not end the uncertainty. The 10 per cent tariffs are still in place, and China’s retaliation shows that we are not in a fix. India may not be directly impacted by this, but we are seeing indirect impacts. Export-heavy sectors like IT, pharma, and auto will have to tread carefully as there could be some pressure on their forecasts, margins, and deal wins if global growth slows further. However, India could benefit in the long term from the China plus one story. Given this, domestic-focused sectors like consumption, banks, and infrastructure are better protected. We remain neutral to underweight on IT at least in the near term until the fog on forecasts clears.
How are foreign institutional investors (FIIs) reacting to India’s post-tariff situation? Will the investment trend change in FY26?
FY26 could be more positive for foreign investment. Measures such as a cut in cash reserve ratio by the Reserve Bank of India, a consumption-centric budget, and a soft global outlook are positives. Improving earnings clarity could bring FIIs back, especially to large caps and fundamentally strong stocks.
What was the most important factor in investing in FY25, and what is your outlook for FY26?
Discipline and asset allocation remained more important than ever in FY25. Amid so much global turmoil, those who stuck to the long-term process and tuned out the noise did well. This further reinforces the need for goal-based investing, rebalancing, and staying invested through cycles.
My outlook on India in FY26 is positive. Large-cap stocks are available at more reasonable prices compared to mid and small-cap stocks. Domestic sectors such as banks, industrials, and capital goods are well-positioned due to their strong balance sheets, policy stimulus, and resumption of capital expenditure. On the other hand, export-oriented sectors such as specialty chemicals, auto ancillaries, and precision manufacturing could surprise as global trade stabilises and China plus one gains momentum. These less-favoured sectors could become dark horses.
What is your take on the outlook for the broking industry in FY26?
The outlook is more positive than it was six months ago. Compliance costs related to F&O norms, AMC fees to depository participants, and transaction charges led to a decline in retail participation and overall volumes. However, the worst is over, and we are seeing signs of normalcy. As participants adjust and confidence grows again, volumes are likely to see a sustainable recovery. Well-capitalised brokers equipped with technology, compliance infrastructure, and client-centric platforms are better placed to gain share once the storm subsides. FY26 may not see explosive growth, but there could be consolidation and sustainable improvement in volumes for individual brokers.